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☆ Dollar drifts near three-month low, focus on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The index is down 3.7% in November on growing expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. The dollar clawed back some of its losses on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. economy grew faster in the third quarter than initially reported. "Markets will continue to play to focus on what FOMC officials say about the prospect of the upcoming rate-hike cycle." Two of the best-performers are at the polar opposite ends of the "carry" spectrum — the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen . On Thursday, yen strengthened 0.09% to 147.11 per dollar, remaining close to two and half month high of 146.675 per dollar it touched on Wednesday.

Persons: Carol Kong, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Goldman Sachs, Sterling Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S

☆ Euro zone inflation dents euro, dollar rises from three-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. The Japanese currency has firmed almost 3% against the dollar in November and is on course for its strongest month this year. Sterling was last at $1.2646, down 0.39% on the day, while the Australian dollar fell 0.1% to $0.6610.

Persons: David Gray, Matthew Landon, disinflation, Landon, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, Mohamad Al, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Toyoaki Nakamura, Sterling, It's, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: New Zealand, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Morgan Private Bank, ECB, ECB policymaker, Danske Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: States, Europe, U.S, London, Singapore

☆ UK budget deficit undershoots forecast in Sept: ONS
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A view of the financial district in London, Britain, September 23, 2023. REUTERS/Matthew Childs/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Britain recorded a smaller-than-expected budget deficit of 14.347 billion pounds ($17.37 billion) in September, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to public sector net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, of 18.3 billion pounds. Government borrowing between April and September, the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, totalled 81.7 billion pounds, 15.3 billion pounds more than in the first half of the previous financial year. British finance minister Jeremy Hunt is due to give a mid-year update on his budget plans alongside new borrowing forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on Nov. 22.

Persons: Matthew Childs, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, David Milliken, William James Our Organizations: REUTERS, National Statistics, Hunt's Conservative Party, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

☆ Gold gains as U.S. inflation data takes center stage this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by a retreat in the dollar as investors looked forward to U.S. inflation data that could define the Federal Reserve's moves on interest rates. Spot gold gained 0.3% to $1,922.89 per ounce by 0313 GMT, having lost 1% in the previous week. Gold had found support around its 200-day moving average, an important technical level not easy to crack, he said, adding that if U.S. inflation undershoots that could weigh further on the U.S. dollar. Spot gold may retest a resistance at $1,930 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. The U.S. Consumer Price Index data for August due on Wednesday is expected to shape the Fed's interest rate decisions this year.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Gold, Wang Tao, Tim Waterer Organizations: U.S ., The U.S ., U.S, Consumer Locations: The

July 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. All else equal, this would be a tailwind for Asian stocks, bonds and currencies. A New York Fed survey of consumer and inflation expectations was also "risk-friendly." Sentiment toward Asian stocks in recent months has been mostly bearish, with the exception of Japan, but a pause in the selling on Monday lifted the gloom a little. Chinese and broader Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, while the yuan and yen strengthened to two-week highs against the dollar.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Fed, Mainland Banks Index, Ant, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Japan, underperformance, Hong Kong, Mainland, Philippines, Australia, Germany

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - The closure of the Tara zinc mine in Ireland tells you how far the price of the galvanising metal has fallen over the last year. The closure is unlikely to alleviate the immediate over-supply of zinc concentrates but it is a sharp reminder for the market that the zinc price is teetering on the edge of the mining production cost curve. LME zinc price, stocks and spreadsTARA'S PERFECT STORMTara Mines, based in County Meath, is "currently cash flow negative due to a combination of factors including operational challenges, a decline in the price of zinc, high energy prices and general cost inflation", Boliden said. "The zinc market seems to be very volatile at the moment," Nystrom said, which is an understatement given the scale of the price collapse over the last 15 months. But Tara's suspension is a wake-up call that after a year of worrying about smelters, zinc traders need to start worrying about zinc mines as well.

Persons: Tara, Boliden, Mines, Gunnar Nystrom, Ireland's, " Nystrom, Morgan Stanley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Ireland's RTE, Shanghai Metal Markets, Fastmarkets, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ireland, County Meath, Europe, China, Shanghai, London

☆ Morgan Stanley's chief US economist now says home prices are likely to drop only 2% in 2023. Here's why she thinks the housing downturn is virtually over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner says housing activity has bottomed. After a huge drop off in activity, demand is starting to stabilize. Yardeni ResearchThe pickup in activity has likely been due to housing affordability stabilizing. Zentner's view that the housing market is stabilizing is a big contributing factor to her call for a soft-landing scenario, where the US economy avoids a recession. But nevertheless, housing activity has bottomed, and that's probably the most important pillar to a soft-landing."

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Zentner, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Woloshin, Suisse's Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, undershoots, David Rosenberg Organizations: National Association of, National Association of Homebuilders, UBS Wealth Management, Rosenberg Locations: Zentner

Wall Street and world markets cheered below-consensus U.S. inflation on Wednesday, but they may not be so accommodating if Chinese inflation on Thursday also undershoots forecasts. On the other hand, inflation in China is already extremely low and a sign that the world's second largest economy is struggling to generate demand, momentum and sufficient growth. Charlie Bilello, chief market analyst at Creative Planning, on Wednesday tweeted a list of 34 countries' annual consumer price inflation rates. China's 0.7%, the lowest since September 2021, was comfortably the weakest of them all, by almost two full percentage points. Producer price inflation figures will also be released on Thursday.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Jim Cramer says these 7 stocks will be winners in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday gave investors a list of stocks that he believes will perform well next year. The central bank earlier this month raised interest rates by 50 basis points and projected raising rates to as high as 5.1%. "I see so many segments of the market that could be potential winners in 2023, it's hard to take these supposedly sophisticated doomsayers seriously," he said. But despite his enthusiasm for health care, off-price retail and machinery stocks, there's one industry that Cramer plans to stay away from. Disclaimer: Cramer's Charitable Trust owns shares of Eli Lilly, Humana, Johnson & Johnson, TJX Companies and Morgan Stanley.

☆ Argentina inflation undershoots, easing pressure to hike rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Walter Bianchi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The government's INDEC statistics agency reported on Friday the monthly inflation was 6.2% last month, slower than in August and undershooting analyst forecasts of a 6.7% increase. Aldo Abram, executive director at consultancy Libertad y Progreso, said inflation would remain high into next year, before easing back ahead of presidential elections. Argentines on the street said they were increasingly struggling to afford things as prices outstripped salaries. "You have to pay attention to how much things cost because there are things that you can't pay for. You have to eliminate things from your diet because wages can't keep up," 53-year-old housewife Claudia Villalba told Reuters.

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